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Two comparisons, both shown. The national basis ranks Kenai Peninsula County against every scored U.S. county — its percentile band above is a relative national standing, not a condition. The in-state basis ranks it against Alaska's other counties (rank and percentile only — bands aren't meaningful within a single state). A county can stand out in its own state while sitting mid-pack nationally. Neither is a forecast.

Pillar breakdown — national percentile ranks

What this means for Kenai Peninsula County

Kenai Peninsula County scores 43.0 on the national CAERI basis — 2306th of 3,142 scored U.S. counties, placing it in the 25th–50th band nationally by percentile, with a medium-confidence rating. Within Alaska it ranks 20th of 29 counties (33th in-state percentile). The score summarizes how concentrated local employment is in AI-exposed occupations against the economy's measured capacity to adapt; these are relative-standing bands, not a projection of local job change.

Direct occupational exposure stands at the 37th national percentile. The largest concentrations of locally estimated employment in high-exposure occupations are first-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers, secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive, bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks. The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers under 25 is 10% — well above the state median of 8%; research on AI-era payrolls finds early-career roles in exposed work are where hiring patterns shift first, so this share indicates how soon exposure could be felt, not how large it is.

The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers 55 and over is 26% (above the state median) — a higher share historically means slower workforce adjustment when industries restructure. Fiscal sensitivity ranks at the 48th percentile among Alaska's counties. Census of Governments data shows state aid at 16% of this county's general revenue (well below the state median), and wage- and consumption-sensitive streams (sales, income, and similar own-source taxes, where levied) at 14% of own-source revenue. Property taxes, which respond to economic change more slowly, are counted separately and are not part of that sensitive share. How this state's aid formulas and tax structure carry economic change into local budgets is covered in the state-specific fiscal analysis available to subscribers. All county occupation figures on this page are model-based ESTIMATES with the confidence rating shown above.

Largest locally-estimated employment in high-exposure occupations

Across all 214 high-exposure occupations (top quartile of ensemble exposure) with estimated local employment, Kenai Peninsula County has an estimated 4,516 jobs — 21.6% of county employment — carrying an estimated $324M annual wage bill in high-exposure work. The five largest:

Age structure of exposed-industry employment

Cite this page

Machine-readable: this county's JSON · national dataset download and data dictionary on the methodology page.

Nearby and comparable counties

Bristol Bay Co., AK (in state)Ketchikan Gateway Co., AK (in state)Fairbanks North Star Co., AK (in state)Hawkins Co., TN (similar score)Saline Co., KS (similar score)Northampton Co., PA (similar score)

Links point to the economically nearest counties (in-state, and similar national score). County-level geographic adjacency is not part of the public reference data, so proximity here is by rank, not by shared border.

Sources & provenance