STRATAHELM · CAERIHomeCountiesArticlesMethodologyContact

Two comparisons, both shown. The national basis ranks Carbon County against every scored U.S. county — its percentile band above is a relative national standing, not a condition. The in-state basis ranks it against Montana's other counties (rank and percentile only — bands aren't meaningful within a single state). A county can stand out in its own state while sitting mid-pack nationally. Neither is a forecast.

Pillar breakdown — national percentile ranks

What this means for Carbon County

Carbon County scores 55.8 on the national CAERI basis — 921st of 3,142 scored U.S. counties, placing it in the 50th–75th band nationally by percentile, with a medium-confidence rating. Within Montana it ranks 4th of 56 counties (94th in-state percentile). The score summarizes how concentrated local employment is in AI-exposed occupations against the economy's measured capacity to adapt; these are relative-standing bands, not a projection of local job change.

Direct occupational exposure stands at the 58th national percentile. The largest concentrations of locally estimated employment in high-exposure occupations are office clerks, general, bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks, elementary school teachers, except special education. The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers under 25 is 7% — above the state median of 6%; research on AI-era payrolls finds early-career roles in exposed work are where hiring patterns shift first, so this share indicates how soon exposure could be felt, not how large it is.

The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers 55 and over is 37% (well above the state median) — a higher share historically means slower workforce adjustment when industries restructure. Fiscal sensitivity ranks at the 89th percentile among Montana's counties. Census of Governments data shows state aid at 15% of this county's general revenue (well below the state median), and wage- and consumption-sensitive streams (sales, income, and similar own-source taxes, where levied) at 6% of own-source revenue. Property taxes, which respond to economic change more slowly, are counted separately and are not part of that sensitive share. How this state's aid formulas and tax structure carry economic change into local budgets is covered in the state-specific fiscal analysis available to subscribers. All county occupation figures on this page are model-based ESTIMATES with the confidence rating shown above.

Largest locally-estimated employment in high-exposure occupations

Across all 201 high-exposure occupations (top quartile of ensemble exposure) with estimated local employment, Carbon County has an estimated 717 jobs — 24.0% of county employment — carrying an estimated $44M annual wage bill in high-exposure work. The five largest:

Age structure of exposed-industry employment

Cite this page

Machine-readable: this county's JSON · national dataset download and data dictionary on the methodology page.

Nearby and comparable counties

Wibaux Co., MT (in state)Deer Lodge Co., MT (in state)Treasure Co., MT (in state)Erie Co., NY (similar score)Le Sueur Co., MN (similar score)Craven Co., NC (similar score)

Links point to the economically nearest counties (in-state, and similar national score). County-level geographic adjacency is not part of the public reference data, so proximity here is by rank, not by shared border.

Sources & provenance