Know where your community stands as AI reshapes local economies.
CAERI scores every U.S. county on
how concentrated local employment is in occupations that published research
identifies as exposed to current AI capabilities — and how well-positioned the
local economy is to adapt. Built entirely from public federal data, with a
published methodology and a confidence rating on every score.
Click your state to see its counties. Alaska and Hawaii are shown as insets.
Latest article · August 4, 2026 —
Painful Growth.
The economy can grow while your county falls apart. Why national averages mislead, which counties experience a boom as a bust, and what to measure when "the economy is fine" is not true on Main Street.
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3,142
Counties scored
51
States + DC
314
In the top 10% nationally
786
In the top quarter nationally
5
Pillars per county
100%
Public federal data
Where we stand on AI
An organization that measures AI-driven job disruption is easy to mistake
for an organization that opposes AI. We are not one. Our position, stated
plainly in our position article:
We are pro-AI. The peer-reviewed record already shows
extraordinary benefits — AI-designed medicines entering clinical trials,
progress toward fusion energy, faster and cheaper weather forecasting, and
expert knowledge reaching billions who never had access to it.
We do not call for slowing it down. The benefits arrive on a
timeline, and delay carries a real human cost.
We take job disruption seriously. It is real, it concentrates in
specific communities, and the historical pattern is that help arrives after
the harm — the retraining program funded after the factory closes.
We want to speed up the conversation. Awareness, policy, and
support for affected workers should run ahead of the disruption, not trail
it. Closing that lag is what this index is for.
Every county receives a full scorecard: composite score and tier, five
pillar percentiles (occupational exposure, economic concentration, adaptive
capacity, regional buffer, fiscal sensitivity), the locally largest
high-exposure occupations, and the age structure of exposed employment —
each with plain-language interpretation and a confidence rating. The
methodology is published, the limitations are documented, and the index
never claims to be a forecast.
Every county is scored
on two bases: a national percentile (its standing among all U.S.
counties) and an in-state percentile (its standing within its own state) — the
county pages show both. As of
v0.2.0 the index universe includes government employment — public schools,
universities, and hospitals — alongside private payrolls. As of v0.3.0, county
estimates in metro areas that cross state lines are built from the whole metro's
counties on both sides of the border, improving accuracy in border counties.